Violent Crime Up 42% YOY Last 4 Months???

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I sent the email below to our City Officials, and Mayor-elect Elicker. Mayor-elect Elicker replied and assured me he is reviewing with Chief Reyes. l’m hoping the official data, or my analysis, or both are incorrect. But if they aren’t then this is a story that has gone unnoticed, and to my knowledge, unreported.

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I was reviewing this weeks weekly COMPSTAT report and noticed that Violent Crime is UP 10% year over year (YOY). I was surprised because as recently as July the report was showing Violent Crime DOWN 10% YOY.

The table below covers the last 16 weeks. Violent crime in that period is up 42% YOY. Much of the increase is in the Agg Assault (NIBRS) category, but the other categories are up as well and the trend seems to be rather consistent going back the last 4 months. In fact, Violent Crime from 10-6 to 11-03 (post Summer) is up 64% YOY. Also in the last 4 months, Other Crime is up 19% YOY and Property Crime is up 10% YOY. I pulled the data from the COMPSTAT reports available online. Detailed spreadsheet with analysis is included here

Please review the data and let me know your thoughts.

Regards, Dennis Serfilippi

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